It’s extremely unlikely.
The algorithms in use guarantee that if you provide the same seed and the same passphrase as input, you’ll get back the same wallet as an output. As I previously pointed out, we have a battery of automated tests that verify that this is indeed the case.
It’s super unlikely, but not entirely impossible, that a bug here could affect only some seeds / passphrases – after all, we can’t test every single one.
However, if that was the case, the problem would be reproducible: you could reliably show that upgrading to, e.g., version 1.9.1, breaks the result, AND downgrading back to 1.9.0 un-breaks it again.
I am not sure if OP had tried downgrading, it is definitely worth a shot. However, in the history of Trezor, there are no cases like this. Downgrading may help restore compatibility with a 3rd-party wallet, but it doesn’t change your addresses.
It’s also extremely unlikely, but not entirely impossible, that there’s some sort of hardware glitch that exists for as long as you don’t erase the seed. For instance, in a very unlucky coincidence, a bit might get flipped at backup time, and an incorrect word would be stored and shown on screen.
If this happened, you would find out if you tried a dry-run recovery, because you would be unable to ever complete it.
This is also definitely not OP’s case, because they have successfully restored their seed and got back the same ypub as before. This pretty much confirms that their seed phrase is right.
This kind of glitch can’t really happen with passphrase: the passphrase is never permanently stored on device, and I can’t think of a plausible mechanism that would consistently corrupt the passphrase in just the right way (so everything seems to work fine for 3 years), but suddenly stop working when you upgrade the firmware and recover.
(Again, this could in theory be caused by the firmware being different – but, again, the situation should correct itself if you downgrade.)
In conclusion, the answer is technically yes, but really no. Check your passphrase.
Human brain (and muscle memory) is a funny device. An equivalent of a bit-flip can and does happen to humans: you type the same thing for years and then one day it … just … does a different thing, and you might not even notice.
The best defence against hardware wallet problems is to get two of them from different vendors and cross-check the results. That of course only works if you do it from the start.